What is a confidence interval?
This is the range in which we are confident about the prediction.
How did you come to this prediction?
The prediction indicates an employee whose use of overtime is calculated to most likely be over the mean plus standard deviation of all employees in the same job classification for the next pay period. Models are then built around trends that repeat systematically over time.
What is a standard deviation?
It is a measure of the spread of numbers. The standard deviation is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation of a set of data values. A lower standard deviation is closer to the mean, while a higher standard deviation indicates that the data point is spread out over a wider range of values.
Why did you choose one standard deviation away from the mean?
The mean is the most common way of thinking about what would be a typical value in a dataset. The standard deviation is also a common and robust way to summarize how data within that same dataset vary away from the mean. Since one standard deviation above and below the mean represents about 68% of the data, this measure seemed like a not too permissive and thus more useful way to cut off what should be considered a “normal” value in our data.